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what is the likelihood that water would have gotten into the transmission?

i really hate changing the transfluid but at the same time i don't want to ruin it.

thanks

engine oil is milky brown
going to change filter and oil
run a little
then change again

Drain a little of the tranny fluid. You'll know if there's water right away cuz it'll be at the bottom. If you've driven it it'll be milky like the engine oil.